Duncan

Lending in Duncan, BC

Everyone knows Duncan as the “City of Totems”, and while that’s a nice hook for tourists, it doesn’t get to the heart of the lending story. We see Duncan as a stable, mature service centre for the southern Cowichan Valley. It’s a small city of about 5,000 people, so it’s not a boomtown by any stretch, but its fundamentals are solid and they keep property values steady over the long haul. It has its own identity, separate from the bigger cities.

What really drives the market here isn’t a hot new industry—it’s lifestyle. Duncan has one of the best climates in Canada, a Zone 9a, which is incredibly mild. That, plus being only a 45-kilometre drive from Victoria, makes it a magnet for retirees and people cashing out of the Vancouver or Victoria markets. This creates a constant, reliable stream of buyers with significant equity. This demand keeps the real estate market from falling off a cliff, even when the local job numbers are weak. You can see this reflected in the demographics. The median age here is a mature 55.6, and more than a third of the population—almost 36%—is over 65. The housing stock is built for this reality, with an almost perfect 50/50 split between single-family homes (42%) and low-rise apartments (44%), serving both the remaining families and the wave of downsizers.

That said, we have to be clear-eyed about the local economy. The numbers confirm what anyone on the ground already knows: this isn’t a high-income town. The median household income is just over $53,000, and the unemployment rate hovers around 9.5%, which is high for BC. The top employment sectors are exactly what you’d expect for a regional service hub: healthcare, retail, and hospitality. These are essential, stable jobs, but they don’t pay enough to support high-leverage mortgages. It’s also worth noting that a significant portion of local income comes from government transfers. This is precisely where an equity lender fits in. We aren’t trying to qualify a borrower based on their GDS/TDS from a modest local paycheque. We’re looking at the asset itself—its quality, its marketability, and its proven stability.

The bottom line is that we see real, durable value in Duncan real estate. The lifestyle appeal and retiree demand create a solid foundation for property values, which offsets the risk from the weaker employment and income stats. This balance is why we’re comfortable lending here, but it also dictates our need for caution. For deals in Duncan, we set our maximum loan-to-value at 65.0%. This gives us a comfortable cushion while still letting borrowers access the equity in their homes. It’s a market we know well, but it’s not the place for speculative deals.